Aus macro

Today’s topics

  • Building approvals
  • Retail sales

Building approvals

Building approvals data. There’s just enough there to suggest we may have peaked, in the flurry of activity. Still plenty to drive construction material company earnings upgrades over time, which come through at a lag.

We remain long Adbri (ABC) as the only reasonable source of Quality and Value in the space.

Retails sales

Retail sales data is out. Share prices are driven by a) new news and b) rates of change, more so than levels. Note the household goods story is slowly giving ground to other areas of spending. This should be a red flag to lofty consumer discretionary valuations, which include businesses like NCK, BRG, HVN and JBH.

We have no traditional consumer discretionary exposure, although we own G8 Education (GEM, the childcare centre operator) which is shoehorned into the sector (hardly discretionary, if both parents work and the not-for-profit centre is full).

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