The below COVID NSW forecast ranges are striking.
The ASX will not weather such a path well, nor will the AUD, should we follow the median path.
Most of the companies we hold in our direct equity portfolio are not directly COVID “reopening” plays. TPG, RHC, GEM, VCX and DXS, and ABC would likely be effected, but in the case of VCX and DXS, we are under REITs in general (a sector that would likely struggle under such a scenario).
In the case of TPG, the mobile roaming / tourist related decline has already been “priced in” we’d suggest, and larger issues like the merger and 5G rollout are dominant to the investment thesis.
That leaves RHC, but in aggregate, our portfolio is quite underweight COVID normalisation plays, having sold out of quite a few of them over the past months (stocks like TCL, or CWN).
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