The Newcrest (NCM) result was great, no doubt about it. Divisionally strong..

Strong earnings per share growth…

Great cashflows…

And net cash…

Despite that, it is very hard to buy a gold stock ahead of a US Fed taper, with the sector one of the most sensitive to changes in rates.

Secondly, valuation isn’t that cheap. It’s gotta grow, to meet expectations embedded in the market cap, and that’s even off a base that’s underpinned by near record high gold prices.


And grow it will, at least in terms of production, as it adds new mines to the mix. But it’s a much higher hurdle from more normalised gold prices. And the track record of adding new mines to the portfolio hasn’t been especially flawless.

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