Rarely, do we quote him, but this from Taleb is pretty good.
I’ve seen gluts not followed by shortages, but I’ve never seen a shortage not followed by a glut.Nassim Nicholas Taleb
We’ve written a lot on commodities, and won’t rehash those views here, suffice it to say we think that most commodities reflect a common macroeconomic phenomena (that of resurgent “reopening” demand meeting COVID constrained supply), and are nothing to do with any of the idiosyncratic drivers that ordinarily dominate any given commodity.
Eventually, supply side issues eventually sort themselves out, here, indirectly referenced by Taleb as shortages followed by a glut.
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