A great table from Tim Duy via Marad Markets that swaps out the famous dot plots for numbers. You can see the hawkish tilt from the June FOMC meeting, where the median “dot” shifted to 2 rate hikes in 2023.

September’s meeting, (which hasn’t happened yet) is the blank column. Powell has gone to great lengths to foreshadow the intent to taper, and to disconnect the taper from the idea of actually hiking rates, but all pretty much anyone ever cares about is the dots.


Worth reemphasising, that’s all every fund manager / bond trader looks at. The dots speak louder than words.

Our view is that markets are modestly overvalued, with plenty of very credible reasons for present levels giving rise to an allocation in line with an SAA, and modestly underweight at the DAA (views we won’t rehash in this note) level.

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