CSL’s AGM update contained one piece of important good news.

The next graph shows our donor numbers on a weekly basis. If we turn to Jan 2021 and the most recent 6 months (the red line) you will see collections declined in March/April as a result of another round of US fiscal stimulus, and some damaging weather events.

From this point on, up to today, we have seen a promising rebound.

The bold is our emphasis, but a key overhang for the stock had been concerns over the ability to source plasma, which is the key revenue enabler for a plasma fractionation business.


The words “up to today” do quite a bit of heavy lifting, given the accompanying graph would be several months out of date otherwise (noting, that is a weak point in the argument. Why not show a more current graph otherwise?).

Still, on valuation grounds, we trimmed quite a bit of CSL, moving back to equal weight in the $310 range.

Given CSL provides us with a material contribution to the overall Quality factor loading of the portfolio (note below the high correlation coefficient estimate (~.93) and the robust p.value (a measure of statistical significance) for CSL) and provides us with AUD diversification, CSL will remain a core holding.

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This document is based on information available at the time of publishing, information which we believe is correct and any opinions, conclusions or forecasts are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to its accuracy, reliability or completeness. To the extent permitted by law, neither Aequitas nor any of its affiliates accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of the information herein.

Please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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