CSL’s AGM update contained one piece of important good news.
The next graph shows our donor numbers on a weekly basis. If we turn to Jan 2021 and the most recent 6 months (the red line) you will see collections declined in March/April as a result of another round of US fiscal stimulus, and some damaging weather events.
From this point on, up to today, we have seen a promising rebound.
The bold is our emphasis, but a key overhang for the stock had been concerns over the ability to source plasma, which is the key revenue enabler for a plasma fractionation business.
The words “up to today” do quite a bit of heavy lifting, given the accompanying graph would be several months out of date otherwise (noting, that is a weak point in the argument. Why not show a more current graph otherwise?).
Still, on valuation grounds, we trimmed quite a bit of CSL, moving back to equal weight in the $310 range.
Given CSL provides us with a material contribution to the overall Quality factor loading of the portfolio (note below the high correlation coefficient estimate (~.93) and the robust p.value (a measure of statistical significance) for CSL) and provides us with AUD diversification, CSL will remain a core holding.
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