Given how the news flow unfolded, from that big red highlighted news item at 9.20am this morning, it was something of a disappointment.
We actually owned CWN, a while back, as a reopening play, which was a successful trade. We sold out on the back of the first takeover proposal, and noted at the time that the long running ESG issues were only getting worse with each passing week, leading us to revise upwards our probability of a subsequent, much more punitive, outcome.
The example is illustrative. Had the outcome gone against them, the stock reaction would have been, in our view, extreme, because the market (perhaps unlike the regulator) has a manic side, and if there’s one thing this manic nature hates, it’s uncertainty. And there would have been loads of it.
The upside has been, at least based on today’s trading, a little under 10%. From an institutional perspective (with our fund manager hat on) it is a trade that simply didn’t seem worth it. From an advice perspective, we think it an even more unappealing trade, with the optics of “this readily foreseeable, highly impactful outcome was a risk you didn’t need to take” very much front of mind.
As we often note, there are simply easier way to make money, than in these binary sorts of bets.
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