The undeterred job ads data (undeterred by COVID-related lockdowns)…
…augers well for unemployment, which forecasts a lower rate.
The housing finance data, below displayed by value of loans approved, remains incredibly hot.
However, the rate of change suggests a modest degree of cooling, which will almost certainly continue to temper as short-to-medium rates move higher, and affordability constraints bite.
The general run of data is one of strength, particularly post the pandemic. This is encouraging from an ongoing capital deployment perspective, inline with one’s strategic objectives.
From a DAA perspective, we view the housing data as effectively unsustainable, and as such remain underweight housing related sectors (which includes the banks, builders, and discretionary retailers through the wealth effect).
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This document is based on information available at the time of publishing, information which we believe is correct and any opinions, conclusions or forecasts are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to its accuracy, reliability or completeness. To the extent permitted by law, neither Aequitas nor any of its affiliates accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of the information herein.
Please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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