We spend a lot of time convincing ourselves not to buy NCM. It is often quite tempting.
However, it is also very difficult (almost impossible for us) to escape the following.
We have a backdrop of of high inflation.
We have a tailwind of low real rates.
We have an environment of elevated market vol.
We have a revenue driver of high gold prices.
We have a revenue driver of high copper prices.
And NCM can’t meaningfully re-rate.
And that, a bull would say, is the opportunity! You’ve identified a stock that’s undervalued! Buy it!
But flipping the question, what would make it re-rate, if all that doesn’t, or won’t?
And so we sit on the side-lines again, with this one.
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