Well, Kogan has almost completely unwound the pandemic bounce, entirely as it should (and really for all the discretionary retailers) due to the impermanence of such elevated demand, and the challenges of maintaining margins in the face of such gnarled supply chains…
…and of maintaining such eye-watering multiples in the face of what is only a moderate back up in real yields.
We wrote a longish note on KGN some time ago, see here for more.
The key graph was this, a red flag to subsequent inventory liquidation, which crunches margins and eats cashflow.
Whether it becomes a decent prospective investment from here depends entirely on how profitable the remaining difficult to move inventory is (it depreciates very fast) and how much of the pandemic associated shift to goods (e.g. share of wallet) remains, and more importantly, remains Kogan’s (e.g. market share, brand loyalty).
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