US macro

Headlines

A lot out overnight.

  • Labour market (initial claims)
  • Housing (new home sales)
  • Durable goods (manufacturing orders)
  • PMI (S&P data)

Much of it very good.

Detail

The very strong US labour market data continues. Claims lower than expected.

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Housing, on the hand, is responding to 170bps of higher mortgage rates. Strong h/h balance sheet or no, that is fair bit to swallow.

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Also interesting to note the performance of the US homebuilders. Our domestically listed player in the space JHX has drawn down too, but that’s after almost tripling from COVID lows.

The manufacturing data continues to be very solid, albeit slightly lower month on month. All of this suggests business and consumer confidence remains reasonably robust.

Assuming the Fed doesn’t tank the economy (inadvertently tightening into a recession) durable goods demand should stay high for the foreseeable future.

The preliminary March PMI data for the US also suggests that the past months worth of uncertainty is not weighing on us just yet.

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