RWC

Description

RWC is a global plumbing business, and thus highly reliant on the housing cycle.

Story, in charts

Plausibly, it is overearning, thanks to a hugely overheated global housing market. You can see the big increase from trend in the graph below, as the pandemic changed expenditure patterns.

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Through-the-cycle margins appear closer to 15%, suggesting that RWC is indeed overearning.

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Gearing up just as mortgage rates spike by the most in decades (negative to housing demand).

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With a big inventory build on a) efforts to secure supply b) expectation that cycle has further to run.

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It would appear that inventory build is where the operating cashflow went.

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Seemingly not priced for a slowdown, and consensus expectations certainly don’t expect one, which, in our view, raises the possibility of a material disappointment.

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Important Information: This document has been prepared by Aequitas Investment Partners ABN 92 644 165 266 (“Aequitas”, “our”, “we”), a Corporate Authorised Representative (no. 1284389) of C2 Financial Services, (Australian Financial Services Licensee no. 502171), and is for distribution within Australia to wholesale clients and financial advisers only.

This document is based on information available at the time of publishing, information which we believe is correct and any opinions, conclusions or forecasts are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to its accuracy, reliability or completeness. To the extent permitted by law, neither Aequitas nor any of its affiliates accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of the information herein.

Please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

General Advice Warning: This document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, and therefore you should consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. Before making any decision about whether to acquire a financial product, you should obtain and read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) or Investor Directed Portfolio Service Guide (IDPS Guide) and consider talking to a financial adviser.

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