Okay I get the consumer confidence surveys are bad, but they do seem fairly fulsomely explained by oil and gas prices, and we’ve got durable goods expenditures / capex data that looks like the below. Near term recession it ain’t.
And, supposing that this (above) single piece of data was misrepresentative, you can always fall back on an ERP that is broadly attractive.
Throw in a treasury yield at near 3% and the ex-ante total return is worthy of exposure.
Markets are moving quickly, and the US put on 6% in 10 days (almost a full year’s worth of expected return), so the above ERP comments can change on a dime.
But still, it is useful framing for now.
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