Housing (US, and AUS)
US housing starts fell 14% month on month. It certainly seems like the cycle has (more than!) peaked, due to rates pressure.
Mortgage financing, and refinancing, has ground to a halt. There would be a lot of nervous bankers, loan officers, conveyancers, real estate agents, I would imagine.
Differences to previous cycle: far, far less leverage at the household level.
That is not all the case in Australia, which is partly why we are underweight Australian shares, and banks.
At the stock level, we see this as a clear earnings risk to JHX and RWC.
Last thoughts: this graph from REDFIN. Truly stunning.
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