Thinking about consumer stocks.
We know the consumer confidence data is terrible.
Against that, the retail sales data has been fairly strong.
Now, mortgage rates are on their way to doubling, and there had been a fair amount of “pull forward” in consumer goods demand, as a result of the pandemic (and the policy response).
So the End of Financial Year sales (EYOFs) should be quite telling about the near term trajectory of retail, in Aus.
It’s always important, but with many consumer stocks 30-40% off from prior peaks, perhaps even more so than usual.
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