I go back and forth on JBH multiple times per day. It’s a polarising stock, at the moment, for us.
Here’s the bear care.
To what extent might JBH be over-earning. I would say the point at which their earnings went exponential. That “should” be a relatively uncontroversial take.
But a stronger one might be “when margins doubled”.
A headline PE of 10x can become 20x just through normalisation of margin alone. Add in a cyclical slowdown from an impacted consumer (due to rates) and you get a stronger story.
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