Consumer confidence, general business activity
The US conference board consumer confidence data was released overnight.
You’d never know joblessness was amongst the best it has ever been!
Now consumers are miserable when inflation is high, and at the moment, it is very high, so the graphs are readily interpretable in that light, as opposed to indicating that we are on the cusp of a recession.
To me, a recession will need the unemployment rate to tick up, quits to move down, and other labour market indices (vacancies) to moderate.
It’s also hard to get excited about a recession without a more meaningful slowdown in US housing markets, which means prices rolling over, starts declining and inventories building.
That all may well happen, it just hasn’t happened yet.
By the same token, the stock market, despite having dropped 20% over YTD, isn’t yet pricing a recessionary outcome.
To go with the downbeat consumer, the downcast trajectory of activity is a worrying combination. Energy prices, and rates, working their destructive magic. Oil, which looks magnificent > $100 to company cashflows, setting the seeds of its own destruction here.
Important Information: This document has been prepared by Aequitas Investment Partners ABN 92 644 165 266 (“Aequitas”, “our”, “we”), a Corporate Authorised Representative (no. 1284389) of C2 Financial Services, (Australian Financial Services Licensee no. 502171), and is for distribution within Australia to wholesale clients and financial advisers only.
This document is based on information available at the time of publishing, information which we believe is correct and any opinions, conclusions or forecasts are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to its accuracy, reliability or completeness. To the extent permitted by law, neither Aequitas nor any of its affiliates accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of the information herein.
Please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
General Advice Warning: This document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, and therefore you should consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. Before making any decision about whether to acquire a financial product, you should obtain and read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) or Investor Directed Portfolio Service Guide (IDPS Guide) and consider talking to a financial adviser.
Taxation warning: Any taxation considerations are general and based on present taxation laws and may be subject to change. Aequitas is not a registered tax (financial) adviser under the Tax Agent Services Act 2009 and investors should seek tax advice from a registered tax agent or a registered tax (financial) adviser if they intend to rely on this information to satisfy the liabilities or obligations or claim entitlements that arise, or could arise, under a taxation law.