That new home sales data overnight in the US, fairly grim. 590k, down sharply, and history (albeit limited!) shows that much more modest mortgage rates rolled the prior boom.
If Leamer (the famous economist who coined the phrase “Housing IS the business cycle”, whose work we cite frequently) is right, look out.
Even if wrong, I can’t see how the above (higher mortgage rates, poor sentiment, and a Fed to tighten into an already inverted yield curve) doesn’t “hard stop” the housing market specifically, at the very least.
That means it is “too soon” for business like JHX, or RWC, for now, in our view.
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