I would imagine UMG will trade poorly today, given the update. The below is the balance sheet equivalent of “bones, never a good sign”.

The guidance update for FY23 EBITDA is $140-160m, consensus is sitting at $177mm, meaning the earnings revisions to FY22, 23 and likely 24 will be severe.

The bad news is all the things you might expect; supply chains, energy, war, commodity prices, particularly barely, but also the quantity and quality of the most recent harvest, which turned out worse than previously expected, by management.

Everything has it’s price, we’ve viewed UMG as “dangerous” deep value, meaning “lot’s of hairs, but potentially very cheap”.

Here, the bad news is playing out. We will continue to watch, with interest.

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