Aus employment

Looking a touch peaky, here, for the Aussie employment data.

Easy to associate reasons, lagged impact of rate hikes, consumer confidence has to have some bearing on expenditure decisions (hard to corroborate), residual COVID effects, oil and gas / broader inflation impacts.

That said, there’s not a lot to change anyone’s priors here.

The economy will slow, and slow a lot, given monetary policy changes in train, which will wash through with its usual “long and variable” lags and impacts. Supermarket “trading down” comments, and bank outlooks (specifically, the “quadrupling” in some mortgage repayments comment) provide better leading indicators, I think.

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