IMAP conference

In mid October I am on a panel at the IMAP conference, discussing geopolitical risks, in context of portfolio construction.

Whilst we haven’t seen the presentation on which we will then be asked to opine/discuss, the obvious ones like UKR-RUS, China-Taiwan, the pandemic, and de-globalisation are sure to be tabled.

Less immediately obvious are the derivative topics. For example, the EU cap on non-gas production. Is that a good idea (saving the consumer from disaster) or a terrible idea (because what incentive does a renewable supplier have if in the instant they make good profits, they are confiscated)?

I don’t know, and no one wants to hear me ruminate aloud about such things. I don’t know if they are the best ideas in a bad situation or if they are genuinely harmful to the magic of markets and pricing signals. But at least they are some of the critical questions, and I can certainly tell you what investors think about such outcomes!

(They hate it, obviously. Imagine holding your equivalent of Babcock and Brown Wind into its moment of glory only to find it subsidising oil and gas super profits.)

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