It’s choose your own adventure on the RWC update. Ex one-offs, EBITDA is running at $63m for the quarter. To me, that’s a downgrade relative to expectations. The company’s commentary clearly identifies the first meaningful evidence of moderating demand.

EBITDA at $63M for the quart x 4 quarters is below the $270M expected for the year, not that we get the full quarterly consensus breakdown.

And the set up for the downgrade, given the comments below.

Mind you; I’ve correctly called downgrades in several stocks that the market didn’t react to at all, namely FPH (Fisher and Paykel) and JHX (Hardies), and not called downgrades in stocks that had mild enough downgrades and got carted (TPG, IRE).

So, markets are fickle, and we’ll see how RWC trades today. [note, I’m writing this article before market open].

There’s no call to action, I think RWC is a good business (my views have evolved, from when it first listed; I had thought it a lowish quality company, it’s actually quite reasonable) and I would like to own it, just at much lower prices.

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