US everything remains pretty robust. Supportive of the “continued overheating” camp, and not so much the “dovish pivot or pause” camp.
Still, there is a lot of tightening in train, and it is reasonable to expect this series to roll over, if for no other reason than “capex has to be funded somehow, and not all companies do it through internally generated cashflow”.
We have a foot in either camp, of soft or hard landing. If it is soft, we’ll be glad we have all those equities. If it is hard, we’ll be glad we have all those bonds.
If it is stagflation, well, we won’t have enough USD or commodities in the portfolio to do really well, relative to benchmarks, but our alternatives, property and infrastructure (real assets) strategies should assist.
The call to action, perhaps as ever, is to remain diversified. No matter what scenario emerges, you’ll wish you had more of whatever worked. The key however is really not to have 100% of what didn’t.
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