My units never seem to match precisely with the good folks at Our World In Data for the COVID case rate data (their stock and flows are similar, just different).

However, the point is, it looks like another wave is well underway in China.

It will be very interesting to see if it’s another lockdown, of the of the sort we are familiar with (everything grinds to a halt, commodities weaken, sentiment takes a hit), OR, if it is the rumoured new stance that takes effect (trying to live with it, whilst relying on vaccines and common sense care).

My guess is the former, simply because the local authorities just gave a fairly convincing “unswerving” adherence to COVID-zero as a strategy, and it would be odd to walk that back mere days later.

It seems like the sort of thing you can shift away from say 6 weeks later (I make that up, it’s just to help articulate the point) as a “we will now be doing thing X this way“.

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