China data

The interaction of macro and markets. The October data was rightfully categorised as “awful”.

The rescue packages to property are reflective of this, as they are of the COVID-0 impact. But the support drives the forward looking market, which has rallied hard this past month.

State champions (e.g. across tech/services) also enjoying support (read as “less crackdown-interference-usurping-profit-for-state-cause”) driving a beaten down market further still. But at least 2/3rds of this approach can’t work, longer run.

The iron laws of economics are not so brittle, and you can’t keep up a market that “needs”, (and even wants) to collapse, e.g. property due to over-investment, and you can’t lighten your approach to a virus when you haven’t vaccinated. There is no “trade-off” x vaccines.

That leaves tech. No reason that can’t have a run if they keep more profits to/for themselves, as opposed to being captured by the state or staff.

No specific call to action here. We view EM as a trading exposure, around a very modest SAA weight.

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