Oil
The oil data seems, to me, to suggest a much lower price, rather than the repeatedly bullish threads I tend to read.
The macro set up, analogous to prior tightening cycles (dotted line of the 2014 episode) heralded a great fall (the other dashed line reflects the GFC, which was more about the housing market shock reverberating across the globe).
Clearly, at present, there are negative supply side shocks, which make 2014 imperfect by way of comparison.
Still, history often rhymes if not outright repeats, which is why the OPEC comments on production are of such interest, today.
The rumour was that the Saudi oil representatives were giving the green light to an increase in production, unwinding some of last month’s cut.
The Saudi’s seem to be denying this rumour, but it weighed against oil quite heavily overnight (-5%) until this mornings’ denial.
Wild wild west type stuff.
Important Information: This document has been prepared by Aequitas Investment Partners ABN 92 644 165 266 (“Aequitas”, “our”, “we”), a Corporate Authorised Representative (no. 1284389) of C2 Financial Services, (Australian Financial Services Licensee no. 502171), and is for distribution within Australia to wholesale clients and financial advisers only.
This document is based on information available at the time of publishing, information which we believe is correct and any opinions, conclusions or forecasts are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to its accuracy, reliability or completeness. To the extent permitted by law, neither Aequitas nor any of its affiliates accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of the information herein.
Please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
General Advice Warning: This document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, and therefore you should consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. Before making any decision about whether to acquire a financial product, you should obtain and read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) or Investor Directed Portfolio Service Guide (IDPS Guide) and consider talking to a financial adviser.
Taxation warning: Any taxation considerations are general and based on present taxation laws and may be subject to change. Aequitas is not a registered tax (financial) adviser under the Tax Agent Services Act 2009 and investors should seek tax advice from a registered tax agent or a registered tax (financial) adviser if they intend to rely on this information to satisfy the liabilities or obligations or claim entitlements that arise, or could arise, under a taxation law.