A short note on CCX, which we’ve written previously about many times.

In today’s AGM, they are pointing to slowing trading conditions, and, they are chock full of inventory that they can’t move unless they discount.

The key graph, from the hyperlinked note, is below. CCX got caught in the “bullwhip” effect, in which the pandemic triggered a huge wave of demand, which CCX thought would last for a while, and, having extrapolated this demand into the future, and not wanting to get caught short/miss-out, over-ordered.

The stock is down a lot today, and has more than halved since that August note. There are plenty of things we don’t see, coming, in markets, however, as the above shows, there are some things you can do to make the odds slightly more in your favour.

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