GDP
Headlines
Aus GDP data is out.
Detail
Productivity was a little better relative to the massive drop prior. That’s great, perhaps all the turnover, fresh learnings, bringing people up to speed in new-newish jobs is starting to normalise.
Quarter on quarter itself would be a touch unremarkable, but for the reduced variance compared to COVID impacted periods.
There’s still a lot of excess savings still in system, although I don’t really know how to think through who has them and what mpc you apply. I imagine a lot of the below will be gobbled up by higher mortgage servicing obligations.
I didn’t hold enough consumer discretionary in our flagship core portfolio (although we do have JBH, albeit really only a sector neutralising exposure in our concentrated 10-15 stock portfolio) across that elevated savings period, but hopefully, I do have enough banks to capture some of what I think will be a larger share of wallet.
The contribution from dwellings has perhaps a fraction further to run, given the pipeline, but I think in general we should expect it to detract (continue detracting) over time.
Similarly, I don’t think we can bank on the consumer forever, either, given the above points.
GDP data is a bit backward looking, telling you precisely where you were some time in the past. Nonetheless, we read the tea-leaves.
No call to action beyond understanding the recent past.
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