US CPI P2
The inflation print is out; data looks very good.
The pathway to goldilocks remains intact (e.g. the soft landing).
Month on month data continues to trend lower, and, we still have the anticipated forward looking decline in shelter, which has been a major contributor to inflation. We know this measure (called owners’ equivalent rent) will decline, because new leases are being struck at much lower rates, even negative, in some instances, and thus between shelter, new and used cars, and goods deflation (as consumers go back to buying services, as opposed to fridges, tv’s, new computers) we should continue to see subsequent benign prints.
So, stocks, bonds, property, commodities, should all do quite well today, and, I think, for at least the next few weeks.
If labour market data stays strong (a big if, but still) with inflation returning to trend, it will mean rising real incomes, which in turn should continue to support the economic expansion.
If GDP growth is picking up, and China is reopening, with stimulus to boot, the global backdrop could / should be quite good, in turn, supportive to corporate profits, and risky assets.
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