Back on LLC. It wasn’t a great result, and so, you’ve got to revisit your thesis.
There is some sign that, as per management commentary, the business has indeed rebased. The US is seemingly re-accelerating…
…and Europe/UK hasn’t completely imploded.
To be a bear at these levels, you’d have to convince yourself that LLC has forever forgotten how to deliver projects profitably and that prior profit levels just aren’t coming back.
It seems more likely to assume that the pandemic made life very hard for LLC as a property developer. It is entirely possible that there was terrible execution along the way, too, e.g., poor handling of operations in response to those changed conditions. But it still doesn’t seem likely that margins will stay at the very bottom of the cycle.
You’d also have to think that the pipeline won’t/can’t convert to earnings…
and that the funds management / asset management arm isn’t worth much, even though it is growing.
Those outcomes don’t seem overly likely.
But a swift recovery in the share price seems, alas, very unlikely.
And the cash burns were terrible.
So, there is plenty to dislike in the result, but the opportunity still seems very large.
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