Housing
For those who aren’t familiar, Housing IS the business cycle is a reference to the work of Edward E. Leamer (anyone who uses his name seems to write it that way, in full). We were pretty convinced by his work, and that of Amir Sufi on credit dynamics.
The below is bearish, in our view, and with housing rolling over and unemployment stepping up, there are very good reasons to be nervous on the outlook for Australian shares.
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