The market seemed a little disappointed in Treasury Wine, yesterday. I get it, but operationally a sound result. Earnings have more or less recovered from the pandemic, and the China trade-and-tariff wars. That’s pretty exceptional navigation of turbulent times.
The pandemic obscures it, somewhat, when looking at the seasonality in cashflow. Normally the 1H is weaker (work the harvests, pay the growers, that’s all highly seasonal stuff), and now that we are clear of COVID, that seasonality has reasserted itself. The 2H is likely to be strong, as it has been in prior years.
So, no issues with earnings, or cashflow (note, that capex bar, which looks big, is property purchased, there’s a similarly sized offsetting sale, so the net is much smaller than we’ve shown here).
The balance sheet is in good nick.
Overall, we think it can likely continue to grow, and the share price should (if that happens) follow suit.
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