We can see the unemployment rate ticking up.

We can see 30 day arrears ticking up (WBC).

We can see ad spend dropping (SXL, TV, radio, REA, DHG, home listings).

Retail sales starting to roll (ABS data, but also JBH and NCK). As you might expect, there are a lot of different retailers (WES, Kmart, Target, SUL) out there, at different stages, so the bottom up data is noisy, but there are enough stories to match up the outlook.

Macro divination is all about turning points. If these metrics were all you had to go upon, you’d infer an inflection point.

But easy to just look out the window and see rates have gone from <2% to >6% for mortgages.

It’s all there.

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