Mostly idle thoughts ahead of tonight’s CPI.

Stare at markets long enough and you can imagine anything.

Today, the IMF is positing risks to global growth, alonside Chalmers, more locally.

You can see real yields moving lower, from their peaks, alongside generally weaker commods, & risky assets overall (spreads wider, markets lower). Certainly plausible…

The mining activity (NCM takeover, oil majors tabling mergers, whatever is driving BHP and RIO today beyond the cyclone) reads far more akin to late cycle.

A couple years of “flush with cash”, and a desire to merge assets usually a sign that we’ve jumped the shark.

Side note: deeply annoyed that we held NCM for much longer than we normally do, into the Newmont bid, and finally gave up when the gold price hit $2000 (an unsustainable number in our mind), thinking this was as good as we’d get.

We’d rolled the proceeds into AGL, which has at least outperformed, although clearly far short of squeezing an extra 10% or so out of NCM.

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