US CPI
US CPI still allowing a “choose your own adventure” by way of opinion. Headline looks good, core is trending in the right direction, still elevated, and medium term expectations did tick up earlier (bad) and the budget remains stimulatory (places upside pressure).
Market liked it, and thanks to the Whisperer (a journalist who seems to be in-the-know/preffered-source for the Fed) believes that a “skip” (not hiking tomorrow, but may well do so at the meeting after) is likely, with commentary to point to high for longer, if/as/when required, till the job is done.
Forward looking automotive outcomes and rental rate declines should get us to goldilocks. You can see below the recovery in US vehicle production (where the shortfall had been a major driver of inflation) and the Zillow rent renewal rates (where household formation demand had been a major driver of inflation) data suggest that we will see further downside (i.e lower) inflation prints from here on out.
So, overall, good enough, and the future still looks pretty good. As a shorthand for the economy, as long as housing holds up, everything else should too.
Note, we are very bearish on Australian housing outcomes (just to distinguish the two, i.e. the US, versus more local affairs).
Important Information: This document has been prepared by Aequitas Investment Partners ABN 92 644 165 266 (“Aequitas”, “our”, “we”), a Corporate Authorised Representative (no. 1284389) of C2 Financial Services, (Australian Financial Services Licensee no. 502171), and is for distribution within Australia to wholesale clients and financial advisers only.
This document is based on information available at the time of publishing, information which we believe is correct and any opinions, conclusions or forecasts are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to its accuracy, reliability or completeness. To the extent permitted by law, neither Aequitas nor any of its affiliates accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of the information herein.
Please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
General Advice Warning: This document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, and therefore you should consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. Before making any decision about whether to acquire a financial product, you should obtain and read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) or Investor Directed Portfolio Service Guide (IDPS Guide) and consider talking to a financial adviser.
Taxation warning: Any taxation considerations are general and based on present taxation laws and may be subject to change. Aequitas is not a registered tax (financial) adviser under the Tax Agent Services Act 2009 and investors should seek tax advice from a registered tax agent or a registered tax (financial) adviser if they intend to rely on this information to satisfy the liabilities or obligations or claim entitlements that arise, or could arise, under a taxation law.