AGL with a thumping upgrade.
That’s a touch over $2bn at the midpoint of guidance, for FY24, well ahead of street expectations.
The point of the dotted line below is to note that the last time electricity prices peaked, back in 2017, AGL was $28, so a) over-earning, and b) capitalising peak margins into the share price.
At $6, with even higher prices, in 2022/2023, AGL looked good.
Moments like this are rare, in investing.
There’s a lot more to the story, of course, there’s the board dynamics (which are apparently going well, with the MCB appointees, according to management) there’s the $20bn of unfunded renewables infrastructure that AGL will have to stump up for, or find, through third party capital.
There’s the volatility in coal prices for the remaining coal fired network, as well as remediation impacts.
But below $10 that trade seemed very much in your favour.
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