CBA first glance

CBA delivers, as it usually does (although all that and more is already in the price, which we think is absolutely overcooked relative to peers).

However, all eyes drift to the one part of the result that matters for the system: arrears.

There’s movement, and, management expects those 30 and 90 days past due to continue rising.

The outlook statements were guarded, as befitting a bank where the social license requires “not sounding panicked”.

In particular, the “only 2/3rds” observation below remains an interesting prognostic indicator for Aussie consumer stocks.

Plenty more pain is still in the pipeline for households as it all washes through.

But overall, moderating growth, in a competitive backdrop, with the bank executing well, and some evidence of rational pricing returning to market (e..g fewer cashback).

It’s just the price.

Not one for us.

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