JBH first glance

JBH continues to surprise me. I would not have thought the market would like the outlook, all that much, given the actual (to June 30) sales trends and July trading.

Commentary is sombre enough “increased variability in category performance” and “heightened uncertainty”.

Here’s the quarterly to June sales numbers. The good guys seems under intense pressure.

The July numbers (just that one extra month, relative to the above, in YoY space) shows the TGG remain firmly negative, and Aus/NZ are worse relative to the June number, but again, there’s a lot of period to period volatility, so perhaps that’s not worth overly focussing on.

And admittedly, they continue to do better than expected, and there’s a fair bit of negativity in the consensus outlook.

Perhaps the broader point should be “if JBH feels it, you absolutely will, as any other consumer discretionary provider who is not of the same quality”.

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