Aus macro/Job Ads

The ANZ-Indeed Job Ads data is out (see top left graph). Firmly rolled over, is how we’d frame it. The pressures of higher rates are doing their job, and given policy works with a) a lag and b) we only just had a hike in November, it is relatively straightforward to imagine further downside from here.

These employment risks should see continued upside pressure its inverse, the unemployment rate bottom row, middle graph) which is up from its lows but still a fairly modest number (3.72%).

We reflect these concerns through an underweight to the pointy parts of the market, but most especially those areas that we see as over-earning (i.e., consumer discretionary names, where sales and margins are still very elevated).

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