AGL, the big energy gentailer, is not performing especially well.
Since the August result (the second, more recent dashed line) we had wholesale electricity prices drop materially, and gas prices drop materially.
But then they recovered. Here’s electricity.
You can see the recent disconnect to earnings. Market is pricing downgrade risk, but so far the analysts aren’t/haven’t.
That wouldn’t mean a lot in & of itself, but a hot summer is here, and at least from what I can see, the drop in futures is modest and spot recovery is there.
Our position in AGL is as a hedge, specifically a hedge against a dislocation in energy markets.
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