Aus macro/AIG

The AIG data for November are out. Grim, in a word.

Their words were “materially contractionary”, so, similar in vibe.

Most of the data subset were weak, but the new orders data are the one we tend to home in on. That was also quite soggy.

Diffusion indices, surveys, the various PMI’s across the globe, have all been weak for quite some time, with hard data (e.g. actual retail sales/capex/construction/production data) have all been a lot stronger.

So I am less sure than usual about how much faith to place in them. But not “no faith”. Somewhere between the two extremes.

Either way, our general narrative for Australia has been “we are not as strong on our economic underfootings as the US, and therefore cannot have high rates for long without causing a material downturn”, and that narrative remains.

Important Information: This document has been prepared by Aequitas Investment Partners ABN 92 644 165 266 (“Aequitas”, “our”, “we”), a Corporate Authorised Representative (no. 1284389) of C2 Financial Services, (Australian Financial Services Licensee no. 502171), and is for distribution within Australia to wholesale clients and financial advisers only.

This document is based on information available at the time of publishing, information which we believe is correct and any opinions, conclusions or forecasts are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to its accuracy, reliability or completeness. To the extent permitted by law, neither Aequitas nor any of its affiliates accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of the information herein.

Please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

General Advice Warning: This document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, and therefore you should consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. Before making any decision about whether to acquire a financial product, you should obtain and read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) or Investor Directed Portfolio Service Guide (IDPS Guide) and consider talking to a financial adviser.

Taxation warning: Any taxation considerations are general and based on present taxation laws and may be subject to change. Aequitas is not a registered tax (financial) adviser under the Tax Agent Services Act 2009 and investors should seek tax advice from a registered tax agent or a registered tax (financial) adviser if they intend to rely on this information to satisfy the liabilities or obligations or claim entitlements that arise, or could arise, under a taxation law.

Receive our investment insights

Something went wrong. Please check your entries and try again.