Aus macro/GDP

The GDP data for quarter ended September is out.

The numbers are grinding lower, and there’s been more rate hikes since then.

Household FCE strikingly different to government FCE (suggesting government expenditure is helping to keep us away from recession).

Now, these are largely backwards looking. Things are moving quickly within the economy.

At least productivity went up a touch.

The household saving ratio is moving in a manner that suggests (to me) that they might be feeling it at the margin. You can either think “ah, households desire to slow their accumulation of real balances”, or “probably suggests that there’s little left over after making ends meet”.

The former connotes little reason to worry, the latter not so much.

The market certainly liked it. The view here is “soft landing”, the Australian version of “things are cooling but not collapsing”. We are still bearish on the outlook, given Australian specific circumstances.

I liked the Bloomberg headline that gets at the point more succinctly.

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