Jobless claims

Having written a bunch of stuff today that can sound bearish (it isn’t meant to, we are pretty close to our SAA weights on average), I wanted to dig in to the “rising jobless claims data” that’s been doing the rounds.

Is the seasonal pattern anything to get worked up about, just yet? I’d say it is too early to tell, on that measure alone (e.g. in isolation).

You can definitely combine it with other worries (PMI data, risk of overshoot in downward trend for NFP’s, for inflation, basically all the soft landing stuff just extrapolated to subtrend outcomes), if so inclined.

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