Aus jobs/Aus macro
Well, I expected the unemployment rate to climb, and it is closing in on 4% (which I expect it will comfortably move past).
However I am not expecting to be surprised to the upside by gains in FT employment, on average (+61.5K, building on last months +55K, higher than expected).
Strong labour supply gains (participation rate climbing) and strong labour demand, it seems.
One can push back doom and gloom for another month, based on that kind of print.
For those that follow the Sahm rule, the Aussie number is closing in on the 0.50% threshold (the rules form is described in the title, although the specific worked example is for the US, which equates to 0.30%).
The RBA forecasts aren’t all that far away either (bottom row, middle), given today bumps towards 3.9%. All you need is a proper China slowdown (not the dribs and drabs slowdown we’ve had, but rather one where iron ore is on the nose) or just a broader global rates-related one.
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