Aus macro/Retail sales

Revisiting that strong Aus retail sales number from yesterday, and in particular this issue about seasonal impacts of Black Friday / Cyber Monday.

Here’s the graph, where you’ll note the strong November number.

And you’ll also note the category labels to distinguish November from December.

In our view, it is simply very unlikely that retail sales are accelerating into the final stages of the rate cycle. Shopping around for “value” given COL pressures sounds odd, but strength it likely ain’t & thus Occam holds.

Here’s the matching quote from the ABS, citing the retailers.

“Retailers told us that the success of Black Friday sales was boosted by consumers seeking out discounts in response to cost-of-living pressures,” Mr Ewing said. 

The reference to Occam here is the idea of “the simplest explanation is usually the right one”.

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