Aus macro/Aus employment

Well that employment print sure looks ordinary, -65.1K jobs, vs +15K expected (second column, first row, really leaps off the graph at you).

It’s been a volatile little series for a while, especially in the recent past, which makes firm conclusions difficult. The strong gains of October and November are now gone, and note the participation rate (3rd row, 1st column), which dropped 40 basis points.

Had that stayed steady, the unemployment rate would be closer to 4.30%.

This series (actual, and RBA forecast) will have to come up a touch, should today’s print hold (e.g, not revised away, or proven to be some seasonal calculation quirk, which is possible, especially since Black Friday / Cyber Monday distort both the traditional seasonal retail sales numbers and the associated seasonal retail employment numbers).

Overall, that was -106K full time jobs, vs +57K expected.

Don’t throw your rates trade out just yet. North of 4% for Aussie 10s is attractive, we think, in the current environment (hence our overweight).

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