Aus macro/RBA

The RBA was on hold, with a mild hawkish bias, to our mind.

I would say this sort of framing (the big bold red line) continues to be a mistake.

Retail sales, employment, inflation, all moderating. Housing is a problem, and the hawkish stance will worsen it (by resulting in less supply being delivered, over time), not aid it. Risk of policy error here is high.

AUD and rates up, post the announcement, markets (stocks, long-duration assets like property) down in general, but flat since the announcement, and recovered from their lows. Consistent with our hawkish, at the margin, framing, but also I think predicated on the “support for China equities” narrative that entered the market around lunchtime.

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