The AGL result demonstrates they are managing well, and the market liked it. Higher plant availability, more stable markets, higher wholesale electricity prices, made it look like the AGL of old.

Cashflows were excellent.

They also seem to be doing the basics right as well; voice of the customer, NPS, engagement scores are all moving in the right direction. Hard to run a business with unhappy customers and disgruntled staff.

Customer numbers are stable across energy, and growing off a zero base in teleco subscribers.

AGL churn rates have drifted higher in a competitive market, but remain well below that of market.

Where those electricity prices wind up determines where profits & the share price go. Since the portfolio hedges are built from the VWAP (dotted lines) and the traded forward curve (wiggly line) it does suggest the feared forward-looking earnings decline is more modest…

…than the share price decline has suggested (i.e. from $12ish to $8ish, partially offset by today’s result).

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