ANZ/NZ macro

Mostly the note is NZ, even though the headline is ANZ.

The quarterly result was fine, in fact, it is extraordinary that loan losses remain at 3bps (provisions for losses as % of GLA’s).

They are well capitalised, growing above market (ANZ has been quite aggressive, chasing share and volume, even as CBA has/had stepped back a touch, citing somewhat irrational pricing, with loans being written below WACC), and are trying to get bigger by eating SUN’s bank (which still sits with the regulator).

On to the NZ macro point.

There are many views to make a market, and all that, but the idea that the RBNZ should be hiking again is a perilous one, in our view.

There’s what they will do, and what they should do, and, in our view, both suggest lower not higher rates.

And, this is the ANZ data!

Perhaps our point is that low but swiftly climbing NZ arrears, combined with the otherwise very ordinary-looking macro data, is not an environment in which you’d wish to (further) bonk debtors over the head with incremental hikes.

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