US macro

Nothing really in this set of data, despite the deluge, to move markets overmuch. It’s still about inflation, tonights PPI might be more interesting.

Might have been a sizeable down month, for US retail sales, and below consensus, but they’ve been choppy before to little avail/impact/narrative-shift. Had it been “hot” of course, bond markets would have been off and running again (yields higher).

Continuing claims are little more interesting. You can see (in purple, below) the 2024 data rolling through. Claims are rising, but equally, initial claims (not shown here) were down. So, little to contemplate.

Empire back to near from -43 was probably the big one. Empire is shown on the bottom right of the below graph. It was a huge recovery from what now looks very much like a data blip / headfake.

We’ve said it before, we’ll say it again. Trade small off these sorts of data. Had you “thundered in or thundered out” of equities or growth assets solely on the basis of the survey data (or any one print really) you would lose money quite quickly.

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